This Global Employment Trends report for 2013 is a special edition, warranted by the resurgence
of the crisis in 2012. The year 2011 saw a tapering off of the recovery, followed by a dip
in both growth and employment in 2012. Unemployment increased by a further 4 million
over the course of 2012.
The report examines the crisis in labour markets of both advanced economies and developing
economies. The epicentre of the crisis has been the advanced economies, accounting for
half of the total increase in unemployment of 28 million since the onset of the crisis. But the
pronounced double dip in the advanced economies has had significant spillovers into the labour
markets of developing economies as well. A quarter of the increase of 4 million in global unemployment
in 2012 has been in the advanced economies, while three quarters has been in
other regions, with marked effects in East Asia, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The report estimates the quantitative and qualitative indicators of global and regional
labour markets and discusses the macroeconomic factors affecting the labour markets in order
to explore possible policy responses.
Most observers acknowledge that the period
from the early 1990s until around 2007 delivered
some economic successes, such as satisfactory or
even rapid output growth in a number of developing
countries (although average growth rates were still
lower than in the 1960s and 1970s) and relatively
low inflation. However, all of them agree that labour
market outcomes were generally unsatisfactory in this
period of accelerated globalization: employment typically
grew at much lower rates
than output – or in some cases did
not grow at all – and the share of
wages in national income generally
declined in both developed
and developing countries.
In this chapter, it is argued
that employment creation and a
declining wage share are interdependent,
in the sense that if
wage growth does not keep pace with productivity
growth, the expansion of domestic demand and employment
creation will be constrained, and that this
constraint can only be lifted temporarily, if at all, by
reliance on external demand.
World of Work
Report 2011 - 31 October 2011
Market
turbulence, employment and
social unrest: Trends and
outlook.
The next few months will be crucial for avoiding a dramatic downturn in
employment
and a further significant aggravation of social unrest. The world
economy,
which had started to recover from the global crisis, has entered a new
phase of economic
weakening. Economic growth in major advanced economies has come to a
halt and some countries have re-entered recession, notably in Europe.
Growth has
also slowed down in large emerging and developing countries.
Based on past experience, it will take around six months for the ongoing economic
weakening to impact labour markets. Indeed, in the immediate aftermath
of the global crisis it was possible to delay or attenuate job losses to a certain extent,
but this time the slowdown may have a much quicker and stronger impact on
employment. After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, many viable enterprises
expected a temporary slowdown in activity and so were inclined to retain
workers. Now, three years into the crisis, the business environment has become
more uncertain and the economic outlook continues to deteriorate. Job retention
may therefore be less widespread...
Among the most pernicious effects of the financial crisis
is unemployment, which is at devastatingly high levels in many countries around
the world. The IMF's Prakash Loungani outlines the main factors behind this
crisis — and lays out the steps governments need to take to resolve the issue
and avoid it in the future.
Recessions leave scars on the labor market; the Great Recession of 2007–09 has left gaping
wounds. Over 200 million people across the globe are estimated to be unemployed at present.
Among countries with unemployment data in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (WEO) database,
there has been an increase of over 20 million unemployed people since 2007. The ILO estimates
that globally the increase is over 30 million...three-fourths of
this increase in the number of unemployed people occurred in the “advanced” economies (the term
used in the WEO to denote high per capita income countries) and the remainder among emerging
market economies. The unemployment rate increased by 3 percentage points in advanced countries
since 2007 and by 0.25 percentage points in emerging markets). In contrast, in
low-income countries (LIC) on the whole, unemployment fell during the Great Recession.
Economic recessions are often portrayed as short-term events. However, as a substantial body of economic literature
shows, the consequences of high unemployment, falling incomes, and reduced economic activity can have lasting consequences.
For example, job loss and falling incomes can force families to delay or forgo a college education for their
children. Frozen credit markets and depressed consumer spending can stop the creation of otherwise vibrant small businesses.
Larger companies may delay or reduce spending on R&D.
In each of these cases, an economic recession can lead
to “scarring”—that is, long-lasting damage to individuals’
economic situations and the economy more broadly. This
report examines some of the evidence demonstrating the
long-run consequences of recessions. Findings include:...
Although the unemployment number remains high it
isn’t a full picture of the terrible situation in the (U.S.)labor
market. The population that is out of the labor force and
no longer trying to find a job is steadily increasing, and
the normal mechanisms for those people to reenter
employment have collapsed.
United States: selected issues (on unemployment)
Prepared by Nicoletta Batini, Oya Celasun, Thomas Dowling, Marcello Estevăo,
Geoffrey Keim, Martin Sommer, and Evridiki Tsounta (all WHD)
Approved by Western Hemisphere Department - International Monetary Fund
July 12, 2010
This selected issues paper on United States was prepared by a staff team of the International
Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country.
It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 12, 2010. The views
expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the
government of United States or the Executive Board of the IMF.
The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents by the IMF allows for the deletion of
market-sensitive information.
The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of distributional
conflict. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large
increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder,
and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where
these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining power over incomes.
A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real
contraction. But restoration of the lower income group’s bargaining power is more
effective.
The landscape of development is changing for all countries as a result of the impact of
the global financial crisis, and in this context policy discussions in developing countries
are increasingly focusing on optimizing policy responses...
This paper... is an important
contribution to the new thinking and priorities on the role of monetary and fiscal policies,
and their impact on employment and poverty reduction...
This paper provides important ideas about the wide range of policy options available
for adaptation to specific country contexts. It is a milestone in re-thinking the monetary
and fiscal policy landscape, the role of the State and of the Central Banks in maximizing
the employment impact of various policy instruments...
The report presents the latest global and regional
labour market trends for youth and specifically explores how the global
economic crisis has exposed the vulnerabilities of young people around the
world. In developed economies, the crisis has led to the highest youth
unemployment rates on record, while in developing economies – where 90
per cent of the world’s youth live – the crisis threatens to
exacerbates the challenges of rampant decent work deficits, adding to the
number of young people who find themselves stuck in working poverty and
thus prolonging the cycle of working poverty through at least another
generation.
The employment situation - September 2009
Since the start of the recession in December 2007, the number of
unemployment persons has increased by 7.6 millions to 15.1 million, and
the unemployment rate has doubled to 9.8 percent. In December 2007 the
number of unemployed persons was 7.5 million.
Employment
Situation - August 06, 2010
Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 in July, and the
unemployment rate was unchanged at 9.5 percent. Federal government
employment fell, as 143,000 temporary workers hired for the decennial census
completed their work. Private-sector payroll employment edged up by 71,000. In July 2010 the number of unemployed was
14.6 million.
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The world faces a huge challenge of creating productive jobs for its expanding labour force,
says a new study by three ILO economists. This challenge is global in three ways. First,
inadequate availability of productive jobs is now a worldwide phenomenon, affecting both
North and South. Second, global forces such as cross-border flows of trade, capital and labour
now have important consequences for employment in individual countries. Third,
international economic policies are now almost as important as national policies for
expanding opportunities for productive employment in less developed countries, where most
of the world’s workers live and where almost all of its new workers will live.
The study sets out in detail the nature and magnitude of this employment challenge. It
provides an empirical assessment of the current employment situation in the world, a review
of developments since 1990, an analysis of the interactions among structural factors, global
forces and national policies that have affected employment, and ideas on required policy
responses at international and national levels.
The ongoing global economic slowdown is aff ecting
low-income groups disproportionately. Th is development comes aft er a long
expansionary phase where income inequality was already on the rise in the
majority of countries. ● The recent period of economic expansion was
accompanied by substantial employment growth across most regions. Between the
early 1990s and 2007, world employment grew by around 30 per cent. However,
there was considerable variation in labour market performance between countries.
In addition, not all individuals shared equally in the employment gains. In a
number of regions, women continued to represent a disproportionate share of
non-employed persons – reaching nearly 80 per cent in the Middle East, North
Africa and Asia and the Pacific. ● Employment growth has also occurred
alongside a redistribution of income away from labour. In 51 out of 73 countries
for which data are available, the share of wages in total income declined over
the past two decades. The largest decline in the share of wages in GDP took
place in Latin America and the Caribbean (-13 points), followed by Asia and the
Pacific (-10 points) and the Advanced Economies (-9 points). ● Between 1990
and 2005, approximately two thirds of the countries experienced an increase in
income inequality (as measured by changes in the Gini index). In other words,
the incomes of richer households have increased relative to those of poorer
households. Likewise, during the same period, the income gap between the top and
bottom 10 per cent of wage earners increased in 70 per cent of the countries for
which data are available. ● The gap in income inequality is also widening –
at an increasing pace – between the firms’ executives and the average employee.
For example, in the United States in 2007, the chief executive officers (CEOs)
of the 15 largest companies earned 500 times more than the average worker. This
is up from 360 times more in 2003. Even in Hong Kong (China) and South Africa
where executives are paid much less than their United States’ counterparts, CEO
pay still represents 160 and 104 times, respectively, the wages of the average
worker.
Globalization,
economic policy and employment: Poverty and gender implications James Heintz
International Labour Office, 2006/ This study - Globalization, economic policy and employment: Poverty and gender
implications was initially commissioned in 2005 to take stock of recent literature and existing
empirical evidence regarding economic growth, economic policies, employment and poverty
through an engendered approach. Globalization is a process which affects all economies to
varying degrees and has had both negative and positive influences on economic growth and
employment, depending on the economic predisposition of a given economy, particularly in
international trade, the set of macroeconomic policies adopted and how they are laid out in
the overall development process and economic evolution. The study is, therefore, an attempt
to analyse the overall impact of globalization and macroeconomic policies on employment
and poverty trends with a specific gender perspective, or an attempt to engender employment
and poverty implications of macroeconomic policies. The study also forms a part of the
ILO’s efforts to address the social dimension of globalization, in order to promote a fair and
inclusive globalizatio n through productive and decent employment for all. - Labour
market flexibility and employment and income security in Ethiopia:
Alternative considerations Maria Sabrina de Gobbi
International Labour Office, 2006/ This study has been conducted within the framework of an ILO research project on labour market
flexibility and employment and income security (often called “flexicurity”) in developing countries. The
notion of “flexicurity” has been conceived and used to address labour market issues and policies in the
advanced and transition economies. Applying it to developing countries, in particular to very poor
countries like Ethiopia, requires some modifications to its original notion. This paper attempts to provide
considerations on some of these modifications and contends that labour markets in developing countries
need higher levels of security than of flexibility because of the predominant agrarian and informal nature
of poor economies. It is rather obvious that in surplus-labour countries, optimal security is clearly
associated with the attainment of full and productive employment of the work force. However, that goal
remains a far cry for a country like Ethiopia. It is necessary to explore alternative mechanisms to provide
security to the work force. - Wage
inequality by gender and occupation: A cross-country analysis Marva Corley, Yves Perardel and Kalina Popova
International Labour Office, 2005 This paper fills a void in the literature by providing an empirical analysis of intra- and
inter-country wage inequality. There are in fact very few empirical studies comparing
wages and earnings across countries in different regions, mainly because of the limited
amount of comparable information and methodological data. Wage and earning indicators
tend to be developed based on country- (or region-) specific criteria that are not always
comparable.
The few recent empirical studies available at the cross country level show the existence
of rising inequality in wages and earnings. In many high- and low/middle-income
countries, the wages of high-skilled workers have increased, while those of low-skilled
workers have grown relatively more slowly, fallen or remained stagnant.
International Labour
Office - Geneva
- Report of the
Director-General:
Decent Work 87th
Session
Geneva, June 1999
This Report proposes a primary goal for the ILO in this period of global
transition — securing decent work for women and men everywhere. It is the most
widespread need, shared by people, families and communities in every society,
and at all levels of development. Decent work is a global demand today,
confronting political and business leadership worldwide. Much of our common
future depends on how we meet this challenge.
European
Commission: Employment in Europe
The successful implementation of the European Employment Strategy (EES) (a
key component of the Lisbon Strategy) requires, among other things, analytical
support for the assessment and monitoring of labour market developments in the
European Union. This is mainly done through the annual Employment in Europe
report, which provides the basic analytical and statistical background to the
EES, as well as through a wide range of analyses in the form of studies and
surveys on matters of major concern to the EU citizens.
Modelling of labour
markets in the European Union - Part I (literature review) - 2009
Modelling of labour
markets in the European Union - Part II (documentation of the
model) - 2009
Modelling of labour
markets in the European Union - Part III (illustrative
simulations) - 2009
Modelling of labour
markets in the European Union - Part IV (illustrative simulations)
- 2009
Some papers of the European Observatory on the Social
Situation and Demography
The general task of the networks is to monitor and report on trends in their
respective areas on the basis of EU level available data, but also reflecting
existing national level analysis. Moreover, the monitoring reports convey new
research results and report on recent policy developments in Member States.
Employment in Europe reports. Trends and Prospects: 2009 Employment in Europe report
The current crisis is taking its toll on EU labour markets, reversing most of
the employment growth achieved since 2000, according to the 2009 Employment in
Europe Report published on 23 November 2009.
2008
Employment in Europe report
The Employment in Europe report 2008, as in previous years, addresses topics
that are high on the European Union's employment policy agenda. It gives a
comprehensive overview of the employment situation in the EU, as well as an
analysis of key labour market issues, including: - immigration
- post-enlargement intra-EU labour mobility
- quality of work - the link between education and employment
2007 Employment in Europe report
This is the 19th edition of the Employment in Europe report, which has become
one of the main tools of the European Commission in supporting Member States in
the analysis, formulation and implementation of their employment policies.
Employment in Europe traditionally provides an overview of the employment
situation in the EU, and focuses on a limited number of topics that are high on
the EU's employment policy agenda. The overarching themes of this year's edition
are a life-cycle approach to work, flexicurity and the evolution of labour
income share (i.e. the part of value added that is allocated to labour).
Employment
in Europe Report 1998-2006
This database is intended to make available documents relating to European
Union employment, social affairs and equal opportunities policies. In addition
to EU policy documents and reports, you will find studies, speeches and
descriptions of EU-funded projects. Please note that some documents might
only be available in English.
Amartya Sen: Inequality, unemployment and contemporary Europe, 1997 These neglects are among the factors responsible for high levels of mortality
among socially deprived groups in the United States. For example, African-
Americans – American blacks – have a lower chance of reaching a mature age than
the people of China, or Sri Lanka, or the Indian state of Kerala (see Sen, 1993). The
fact that these people from the Third World are so much poorer than the United
States population (and also poorer than the American black population, who are
more than 20 times richer in terms of per capita income than, say, Indians in Kerala),
makes the comparative disadvantage of African-Americans in survival particularly
disturbing.
Incidentally, the much higher death rates of American blacks compared with
American whites can be statistically established even after correcting for income
variations within the United States. The mortality differentials are not connected
only with death from violence, which is the stereotype that the media often portray
to explain the lower longevity of African-Americans. In fact, death from violence is
a big factor only for younger black men, and that, again, is only a partial explanation
of the higher mortality of that group. In fact, the severe mortality disadvantages of
American blacks apply sharply also to women and to older men (35 and older).
Róbinson
Rojas - 1997: The other side of China's economic miracle:
unemployment/inequality
Since the counter-revolution took over in China in 1977, two main
problems have been mounting: increasing unemployment and
income differentiation. In September 1995, Far Eastern
Economic Review published the following:
"RURAL JOBLESS THREAT.
Rural unemployment poses the "biggest threat" to China, which must
expand labour-intensive industries, according to a State Statistics
Bureau Report. "Labour supply will continue to outweigh demand for
a long time", the report said. It called China's official estimates
of 100 million rural jobless inaccurate. Unofficial tallies put the
number at 200 million -nearly 17% of the population".
Róbinson
Rojas - 1997: Unemployment -
definitions and measurement. Trends
Since the 1970s unemployment has become the most dramatic problem
for industrialized societies. Reflecting on that, the OECD's meeting
at ministerial level on May 1997, worded its central theme as
"promoting sustainable growth and social cohesion"
social cohesion meant "reducing levels of unemployment".
The meeting stated that "eliminating high and persistent unemployment
is the major economic policy challenge for most OECD countries. The
Jobs Strategy review concluded that for the OECD area as a whole,
unemployment has fallen only slightly from its peak in 1994 and that
structural unemployment has risen. In a number of countries it is at
unacceptably high levels. Ministers agreed that the bulk of this
unemployment remains structural in nature, although there is also
cyclical unemployment in some countries".
From
International Labour Organization Global
Wage Report 2008 / 09 Minimum
wages and collective bargaining Towards policy
coherence -----
Wage employment and wages are central to the world of work. Approximately half of
the global labour force works for a wage. Living standards and the livelihood of wage
earners and families depend on the level of wages, when and how they are adjusted
and paid. Wages are a major component of overall consumption and a key factor in the
economic performance of countries.
The enormous expansion of the labour force participating directly and indirectly
in the international exchange of goods and services and the growing interdependence of
low-, middle- and high-income countries has squarely placed wages at the centre of the
debate on globalization. It is the responsibility of the ILO to make available for public
use data on levels and trends in wages around the world. This report illustrates the wide
variety in recent wage trends across countries and regions, from very rapid increases in
a few countries to very modest growth in many others.
With a view to developing information and analysis that is
essential for promoting full, decent and productive work for
all, including women and young people, the Global Employment
Trends series review global and regional economic and labour
market developments based on the most recently available data.
The reports build on the
Key
Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM), and include a
consistent set of tables with regional and global estimates of
labour market indicators as generated from the
Estimates
and projections of labour market indicators. Each issue of
Global Employment Trends also contains a short term labour
market outlook based on projections or scenarios, focusing on
unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty.
The reports have been published on a yearly basis since
2003, with special editions to analyze labour market trends
for segments of the population such as youth (2004, 2006 and
2008) and women (2004, 2007, 2008 and 2009), or for certain
regions. The January 2009 issue focused on the labour market
impact of the global economic crisis. An update of the crisis
impact was issued in May 2009. The gender impact of the crisis
was the main subject of the Global Employment Trends for Women
in March 2009. A word of caution: Each GET, its data and
analysis, is the result of a new run of the
Global
Employment Trends Model, which uses as input the latest
available labour market information from the ILO and other
sources to generate the world and regional aggregates. This
means each new report is based on the best available estimates
at that point in time and that the time series of world and
regional aggregates from one report to the next are not
comparable. The most recent GET should always be taken as the
most up-to-date source of world and regional estimates of
labour market information.
GET 2009 - Update May 2009
The report finds that global unemployment could
increase to a range of 210 million to 239 million in 2009, an increase of
between 29 million to 59 million since 2007. Although the projected spike in the
level of unemployment is a major global challenge, the potential increase in
vulnerable employment is even more alarming. It is estimated that half of the
global workforce – 7 times more than the number of unemployed – are likely to be
in vulnerable employment this year, highlighting the urgent need for policies to
address the substantial decent work deficits that are likely to grow even larger
as the crisis unfolds.
Global output per worker is expected to decline
by between 1.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent this year, which raises concerns given
the strong link between labour productivity and working poverty. The highest
scenario is that more than 1.4 billion workers will be living below the USD 2
poverty line in 2009, an increase of more than 200 million since 2007. Across
all three scenarios, the number of working poor projected to grow in 2009.
GET for Women, March 2009
ILO's fourth edition of the Global Employment Trends for Women
GET January 2009
The global financial crisis has triggered a serious slowdown in
world economic growth including recession in the largest
industrialized countries. Enterprises have stopped hiring and many
are laying off workers in considerable numbers. This report
examines what we know already about the impact of the crisis on
jobs and what we could expect from several possible scenarios of
the way it might evolve in the year ahead.
GET 2008 - January 2008
Economic
turbulence largely due to credit market turmoil and rising oil prices could spur
an increase in global unemployment by an estimated 5 million persons in 2008.
This is one of the main findings in the GET report 2008. This new projection for
2008 is in contrast to 2007, a watershed year in which sound global GDP
growth--of more than 5 percent--, led to a "stabilization" of global labour
markets with more people in work, a net increase of 45 million new jobs and only
a slight increase in the number of people unemployed, to a total of 189.9
million persons worldwide. Other key findings of the GET Report are that despite
growth in the economy and jobs, the worldwide deficit in decent jobs—especially
for the poor—is "massive".
The Report says that five out of 10 people in the
world are in vulnerable employment, either contributing family workers or
own-account workers with a higher risk of being unprotected. Also, an estimated
487 million workers—or 16.4 percent of all workers — still don’t earn enough to
lift themselves and their families above the US$1 per person, per day poverty
line while 1.3 billion workers – 43.5 percent – still live below the US$2 per
day threshold.
GET 2007 - January 2007
The number of people unemployed worldwide remained at an historical high in 2006
despite strong global economic growth. Even though more people are working
globally than ever before, the number of unemployed remained at an all time high
of 195.2 million in 2006 or at a global rate of 6.3 per cent. This rate of
unemployment rate was almost unchanged from the previous year. This confirmed
the trend of the past several years in which robust economic growth has failed
to translate into significant reductions in unemployment or poverty among those
in work.
The pattern looks set to continue in 2007, with a forecast
growth rate of 4.9 per cent likely to ensure that unemployment remains at about
last year’s level. The persistence of joblessness at this rate is of concern,
given that it will be difficult to sustain such strong economic growth
indefinitely. Moreover, while the percentage of working poor in total employment
declined in the past ten years, the number of working people living on US$2 a
day has continued to grow in absolute numbers, reaching 1.37 billion in 2006. To
make long-term inroads into unemployment and working poverty, it is essential
that periods of strong growth be better used to generate more decent and
productive jobs. Reducing unemployment and working poverty through creation of
such jobs should be viewed as a precondition for sustained economic growth.
Some labour market challenges are the same in almost all regions: for
example, young people have more difficulties in labour markets than adults and
women do not get the same opportunities as men. Other challenges vary between
regions, which is why this year’s Global Employment Trends Brief outlines each
region’s labour market performance as well as key challenges. GET 2006 - January 2006
Despite robust GDP growth in 2005, labour market performance worldwide was
mixed, with more people in work than in 2004 but at the same time more
unemployed people than the year before. Overall the global unemployment rate
remained unchanged at 6.3 per cent after 2 successive years of decline. At the
end of 2005, 2.85 billion people aged 15 and older were in work, up 1.5 per cent
over the previous year, and up 16.5 per cent since 1995.
Given that
unemployment is just the tip of the iceberg, the focus in developing economies
should not be solely based on unemployment alone, but also on the conditions of
work of those who are employed. In 2005, of the over 2.8 billion workers in the
world, nearly 1.4 billion still did not earn enough to lift themselves and their
families above the US$2 a day poverty line – just as many as ten years ago.
Among these working poor, 520 million lived with their families in extreme
poverty on less than US$1 a day. Even though this is less than ten years ago it
still means that nearly every fifth worker in the world has to face the almost
impossible situation of surviving with less than US$1 a day for each family
member.
This brief updates the labour market trends to 2005 and
addresses six key labour market challenges: 1) energy prices; 2) the importance
of labour market recovery after natural disasters; 3) the impact of the phasing
out of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement (MFA); 4) global wage inequalities; 5)
sectoral employment shifts; and 6) labour market challenges as a result of
migration.
Changes in labour markets require constant monitoring so that
appropriate policy interventions to support workers and businesses can be
applied. The ILO’s annual Global Employment Trends publications aim to provide
those concerned with the promotion of decent work for all with some of the basic
information needed to continue to improve and target policies. »
GET 2005 - February 2005
The global employment situation improved slightly in 2004. Global unemployment
stood at 184.7 million at the end of 2004, down from a revised 185.2 million in
2003. Although the decline in unemployment is very small in percentage terms,
this is a significant development, as it marks only the second time in the past
decade that there was a year-over-year decline in total unemployment. In
addition, the global employment-to-population ratio stabilized in 2004 at 61.8
per cent, from a revised 61.7 in 2003. The robust global economic growth rate of
5 per cent in 2004 undoubtedly played a large role in shaping these employment
outcomes.
The focus of this Global Employment Trends Brief is not
only on increasing employment, but also on poverty alleviation and improving the
conditions of work. This brief updates the labour market trends to 2004 and
addresses six key labour market challenges that are on the horizon for 2005,
which are expected to impact on the global employment situation and poverty
reduction. These challenges are the December 26th Asian Tsunami disaster, the
HIV/AIDS epidemic, agricultural productivity in developing economies,
outsourcing of employment, working conditions in the informal economy,
and youth employment—all of which require immediate attention and a sustained
response by governments, international organizations and civil society if we are
to achieve the goal of decent and productive work for all.
»
GET 2004 - January 2004
Since the first issue of this report in January 2003, a slow economic upturn has
once again resulted in a deteriorating global employment situation. For the
second time, this report provides a valuable analysis of current labour market
trends around the world. It incorporates the most recent information available,
shedding light on possible factors contributing to the downturn affecting many
workers today.
The impacts of the sluggish global recovery in 2003, of
the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and its effect on tourism,
of the ongoing conflict in Iraq and of the worldwide threat of terrorism have
been different in different regions of the world, and this report reveals how
women and young people have – once again – been especially hard hit,
particularly in the developing world. Covering Latin America and the Caribbean,
East Asia, South-East Asia, South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa,
sub-Saharan Africa, the transition economies and industrialized countries, this
volume focuses on the distinct labour market characteristics and challenges
faced by each region and economic group.
The report traces the various
factors contributing to the global employment decline – such as the increase in
employment in the informal economy, the decrease in employment in information
and communication technology, as well as extensive job losses in travel and
tourism and in the export and labour-intensive manufacturing sectors. Countries
in fragile financial situations and those experiencing armed conflict and
violence have also seen rising unemployment and poverty.
Clearly, the
global employment challenges are many and some are daunting. The information
provided here offers a concise picture of the current situation and of where
economic growth and decent work opportunities are most needed around the world.
»
GET 2003 - January 2003
The continuing economic and uncertain economic prospects have resulted in a grim
global employment situation. Incorporating the most recent data available, this
volume provides valuable analysis of the current labour market trends around the
world and identifies the factors contributing to the downturn affecting many
workers today.
The impact of the global economic slowdown and the
developments since 11 September 2001 have been different in the various regions
of the world, and this report reveals how women and young people have been
especially hard hit, particularly in the developing world. Covering Latin
America and the Caribbean, East Asia, South-East Asia, South Asia, the Middle
East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, the transition economies and
industrialized countries, this volume focuses on the distinct labour market
characteristics and challenges faced by each region and economic
group.
The report traces the various factors contributing to the global
employment decline - such as the increase in employment in the informal economy,
the decrease in employment in the informal economy, the decrease in employment
in information and communication technology, as well as extensive job losses in
the travel and tourism industries and the export and labour-intensive
manufacturing sectors. Countries in fragile financial situations and those
experiencing armed conflict and violence have also seen rising unemployment and
poverty.
Clearly the global employment challenges are many, and the
information provides here offers a concise picture of the current situation and
where economic growth and decent work opportunities are needed most around the
world.
Labour Market
Indicators Library Network »
Overview »
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With a view to developing information and analysis that is
essential for promoting full, decent and productive work for
all, including women and young people, the Global Employment
Trends series review global and regional economic and labour
market developments based on the most recently available data.
The reports build on the
Key
Indicators of the Labour Market (KILM), and include a
consistent set of tables with regional and global estimates of
labour market indicators as generated from the
Estimates
and projections of labour market indicators. Each issue of
Global Employment Trends also contains a short term labour
market outlook based on projections or scenarios, focusing on
unemployment, vulnerable employment and working poverty.
The reports have been published on a yearly basis since
2003, with special editions to analyze labour market trends
for segments of the population such as youth (2004, 2006 and
2008) and women (2004, 2007, 2008 and 2009), or for certain
regions. The January 2009 issue focused on the labour market
impact of the global economic crisis. An update of the crisis
impact was issued in May 2009. The gender impact of the crisis
was the main subject of the Global Employment Trends for Women
in March 2009. A word of caution: Each GET, its data and
analysis, is the result of a new run of the
Global
Employment Trends Model, which uses as input the latest
available labour market information from the ILO and other
sources to generate the world and regional aggregates. This
means each new report is based on the best available estimates
at that point in time and that the time series of world and
regional aggregates from one report to the next are not
comparable. The most recent GET should always be taken as the
most up-to-date source of world and regional estimates of
labour market information. Links to previous GET reports (by
theme)
Economic crisis and labour market impact
From ILO:
Global Employment Trends 2008
(pdf)
Foreword - Acknowledgements 1. Global employment situation
2. Sub-Saharan Africa
3. North Africa
4. Middle East
5. Latin America and the Caribbean
6. East Asia
7. South-East Asia and the Pacific
8. South Asia
9. Central and South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS
10. Developed Economies and European Union
11. Summary
Appendix 1. Tables
Appendix 2. Key regional labour market indicators and policy issues
Appendix 3. Regional groupings
Figures
Figure 1. Global employment and unemployment trends, 1997-2007
Figure 2. Regional shares in worldwide net job creation in 2007
Figure 3. Sectoral employment shares (%) in the world, 1997 to 2007
Figure 4a. Labour Productivity measured as output per person employed in world
regions, levels 1997 to 2007
Figure 4b. Labour Productivity measured as output per person employed in world
regions, percentage change in comparison to 1997
Figure 5. Employment-to-population ratios, female and male, world and regions,
1997 and 2007
Figure 6. Unemployment rates total and youth, world and regions, 2007
Figure 7. Shares of youth population (15-24) in the working age population,
world and region, 1991 and 2015
Figure 8. Status of employment shares in total employment, 2007 all regions
Boxes
Box 1. The importance of agriculture for the development process
in sub-Saharan Africa
Box 2. Female Entrepreneurship: A shared challenge and chance
for North Africa and the Middle East
Box 3. Social exclusion and discrimination in Latin America
and the Caribbean
Box 4. Micro-level analysis of working poverty in the Philippines
Box 5. Analysing labour market vulnerability: The example of Pakistan
The present STAT Working Paper was prepared
on the occasion of the general discussion on ‘Decent
Work and the Informal Economy’ during the 90th
Session of the International Labour Conference
(Geneva, 4-20 June 2002). It is based on data obtained
from a database on employment in the informal sector,
which the ILO Bureau of Statistics established in 1998
to meet an increasing demand by users for statistics on
the informal sector. The database was updated in 2001.
It contains official national statistics and related
methodological information on employment in the
informal sector for countries of Africa, Latin America
and the Caribbean, Asia and the Pacific, and the
transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe and
the former Soviet Union, to the extent that data are
available. Other countries were included only to the
extent that the informal sector was considered to be of
significant importance in these countries and official
national statistics were collected on it.
Ralf Hussmanns -2004
WP No. 53 Measuring the informal economy: From employment in the
informal sector to informal employment
The development of statistics on the informal economy helps to improve labour statistics
and national accounts. The informal economy plays an important role for employment
creation, income generation and poverty reduction in many countries, especially
developing and transition countries. Statistics on the informal economy are needed as an
evidence-based tool for research and policy-making. They enhance the visibility of the
many workers in the informal economy and of their economic contribution.
The purpose of the present working paper is (i) to explain the international statistical
definitions of employment in the informal sector and of informal employment, which were
adopted by the Fifteenth and Seventeenth International Conferences of Labour Statisticians
(ICLS) in January 1993 and December 2003, and (ii) to illustrate the practical application
in household surveys of these definitions in providing examples of their translation into
survey questions.
-----------------Background
readings for business cycles:
Marx's
analysis of capitalism. Excerpt and condensation of Chapter 6 from The
Worldly Philosophers: The Lives, Times, and Ideas of the Great Economic
Thinkers, by Robert L. Heilbroner, 7th ed., 1999, available at www.rrojasdatabank.info/crisisdb/marxsanalysis.pdf
Phillips,
K.I. and J. Wrase, 2003, Is Schumpeterian "Creative
Destruction" a Plausible Source of Endogenous Real Business Cycle
Shocks?, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, 2003, available at www.rrojasdatabank.info/crisisdb/buscycleschumpet.pdf
Rojas,
R., 1985, The making of a fractured society: the case of
Latin America
. The socioeconomic system of production, distribution, exchange
and consumption. Available at www.rrojasdatabank.info/foh7.htm
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