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| An online Atlas of
the MDGs is available here
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From
the World Bank Group
World Development
Indicators 2009
Preface-----
Acknowledgments-----
Partners-----
Users guide-----
Table of contents
Index of Indicators-----
Primary data documentation-----
Statistical methods-----
Credits-----
Bibliography
Millennium
Development Goals-----
Regional
Backgrounders
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1.-
WORLD VIEW
The world seems to be entering an economic crisis unlike any seen since the founding of
the Bretton Woods institutions. Indeed, simultaneous crises. The bursting of a real estate
bubble. The liquidity and solvency problems for major banks. The liquidity trap as consumers
and businesses prefer holding cash to spending on consumption or investment. The disruptions
in international capital flows. And for some countries a currency crisis.
Plummeting global output and trade in the last quarter of 2008 brought the global economy
to a standstill after years of remarkable growth, throwing millions out of work. The United
States, as the epicenter, has seen unemployment rising to more than 11 million, an unemployment
rate of 7.2 percent. Most forecasts show world GDP growth slowing to near zero or
negative values, after a 3.4 percent increase in 2008.
What brought about the crisis? Why is it so severe? How quickly has it spread? In this introduction,
and in the introductions to sections four (Economy) and six (Global links), the data
describe the events that have brought us to this point. Could the crisis have been anticipated
by looking more closely at the same data? Perhaps. Perhaps not. But there is still much we
can learn about how these events unfolded.
Tables
1.1 Size
of the economy
1.2 Millennium
Development Goals: eradicating poverty and saving lives
1.3 Millennium
Development Goals: protecting our common environment
1.4 Millennium
Development Goals: overcoming obstacles
1.5 Women
in development
1.6 Key
indicators for other economies
Text figures, tables, and boxes
1a Developing
economies had their best decade of growth in 2000–07
1b Long-term
trends reached new heights
1c Most
developing economy exports go to high-income economies
1d Increased
investment led to faster growth in low- and middle-income economies
1e Large
current account surpluses and deficits were concentrated in a few economies during 2005–07
1f Current
account surpluses and deficits increased
1g Trade
surpluses led to large build-ups in reserves
1h Trade
deficits were financed by foreign investors
1i Private
capital flows to developing economies took off in 2002
1j . . .
And investors perceived less risk
1k Prices
of assets, especially in real estate, were rising rapidly in some countries
1l . . .
And so were equity asset valuations
1m Indebtedness
ratios have improved for most economies
1n Growing
reserves comfortably covered short-term debt liabilities
1o Commodity
price rises accelerated in recent years
1p Food
and fuel importers were hurt by rising prices
1q Output
in the largest economies slowed or declined in the 4th quarter of 2008
1r U.S.
household debt rose rapidly after 2000 6
1s U.S.
house prices peaked in 2006
1t As
housing bubbles burst, investors lost confidence
1u Savings
and investment in China
1v . . .
And the United States
1w The
five largest current account surpluses and deficits
1x U.S.
foreign assets and liabilities doubled 7
1y Assets
underlying over the counter derivatives rose sevenfold
1z . . .
While the market value of derivatives rose ninefold
1aa U.S.
domestic financial sector profits averaged almost 30 percent of before-tax profits during 2000–06
1bb Derivatives
can undermine capital controls, leading to linkages that make market dynamics difficult to predict
1cc The
number of banking crises rose after the 1970s
1dd The
latest crisis is affecting a large portion of global income
1ee The
cost of systemic financial crises can be very high
1ff Borrowing
costs have climbed, reflecting perceived risk
1gg Equity
markets have suffered large losses
1hh Low-income
economies depend the most on official aid, workers’ remittances, and foreign direct investment
1ii Remittances are
significant for many low-income economies
1jj Fiscal
positions have generally improved but remain weak for some developing economies
1kk Finding
fiscal space in low-income economies
1ll Recent
World Bank Group initiatives
1.2a Location
of indicators for Millennium Development Goals 1–4
1.3a Location
of indicators for Millennium Development Goals 5–7
1.4a Location of
indicators for Millennium Development Goal 8
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2.
PEOPLE
Sustainable development is about improving the quality of people’s lives and expanding their
ability to shape their futures. These generally call for higher per capita incomes, but they also
involve equitable education and job opportunities, better health and nutrition, and a more
sustainable natural environment.
The Millennium Development Goals are the world’s time-bound targets to measure and monitor
the progress of countries in improving people’s welfare. They address extreme poverty
in its many dimensions—income, hunger, and disease—while promoting education, gender
equality, health, and sanitation. At the midpoint between their adoption in 2000 and the
target date of 2015, the goals related to human development (primary school completion
rate, under-five and maternal mortality) have recorded slower progress than those related to
economic growth and infrastructure development (income poverty, gender parity, access to
clean water and sanitation; figure 2a).
Tables
2.1 Population
dynamics
2.2 Labor
force structure
2.3 Employment
by economic activity
2.4 Decent
work and productive employment
2.5 Unemployment
2.6 Children
at work
2.7 Poverty
rates at national poverty lines
2.8 Poverty
rates at international poverty lines
2.9 Distribution
of income or consumption
2.10 Assessing
vulnerability and security
2.11 Education
inputs
2.12 Participation
in education
2.13 Education
efficiency
2.14 Education
completion and outcomes
2.15 Education
gaps by income and gender
2.16 Health
systems
2.17 Disease
prevention coverage and quality
2.18 Reproductive
health
2.19 Nutrition
2.20 Health
risk factors and future challenges
2.21 Health
gaps by income and gender
2.22 Mortality
Text figures, tables, and boxes
2a Different
goals—different progress
2b What
is decent work?
2c Employment
to population ratios have not changed much over time
2d . . .
But variations are wide across regions
2e High
employment to population ratios in some countries reflect high numbers of working poor
2f Fewer
women than men are employed all over the world
2g Many
young people are in the workforce, at the expense of higher education
2h For
many poor countries, there is a tradeoff between education and employment
2i Although
there are large regional variations in vulnerable employment
2j . . .
Women are more likely than men to be in vulnerable employment
2k Share
of working poor in total employment is highest in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
2l Labor
productivity has increased across the world
2m Scenarios
for 2008
2.6a Children
work long hours
2.8a While
the number of people living on less than $1.25 a day has fallen, the number living on $1.25–$2.00 a day has increased
2.8b Poverty
rates have begun to fall
2.8c Regional
poverty estimates
2.9a The
Gini coefficient and ratio of income or consumption of the richest quintile to the poorest quintiles are closely correlated
2.15a There
is a large gap in educational attainment across gender and urban-rural lines
2.16a There
is a wide gap in health expenditure per capita between high-income economies and developing economies
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3.
ENVIRONMENT
The world economy needs ever-increasing amounts of energy to sustain economic growth,
raise living standards, and reduce poverty. But today’s trends in energy use are not sustainable.
As the world’s population grows and economies become more industrialized, nonrenewable
energy sources will become scarcer and more costly. And carbon dioxide emissions from
the use of fossil fuels will continue to build in the atmosphere, accelerating global warming.
Energy-related carbon dioxide now accounts for 61–65 percent of global greenhouse gas
emissions (IEA 2008a; IPCC 2007a; WRI 2005). Global warming will have particularly pernicious
effects for developing economies, with their high exposure and low adaptive capacity.
Where energy comes from, how we produce it, and how much we use will profoundly affect
development in the 21st century.
This introduction focuses on recent trends in energy use and carbon dioxide emissions—and
projections through 2030. There is now a consensus that action is needed to curb the growth
in human-made greenhouse-gas emissions (IPCC 2007b; IEA 2008a). A new post-2012 policy
regime on global climate change—to be agreed in Copenhagen in late 2009—aims to set a
quantified global goal for stabilizing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and to establish
robust policy mechanisms that ensure the goal is achieved.
Tables
3.1 Rural
population and land use
3.2 Agricultural
inputs
3.3 Agricultural
output and productivity
3.4 Deforestation
and biodiversity
3.5 Freshwater
3.6 Water
pollution
3.7 Energy
production and use
3.8 Energy
dependency and efficiency and carbon dioxide emissions
3.9 Trends
in greenhouse gas emissions
3.10 Sources
of electricity
3.11 Urbanization
3.12 Urban
housing conditions
3.13 Traffic
and congestion
3.14 Air
pollution
3.15 Government
commitment
3.16 Toward
a broader measure of savings
Text figures, tables, and boxes
3a Energy
use has doubled since 1971
3b High-income
economies use almost half of all global energy
3c The
top six energy consumers use 55 percent of global energy
3d High-income
economies use more than 11 times the energy that low-income economies do
3e Nonrenewable
fuels are projected to account for 80 percent of energy use in 2030—about the same as in 2006
3f Fossil
fuels will remain the main sources of energy through 2030
3g Known
global oil reserves and countries with highest endowments in 2006
3h Production
declines from existing oil fields have been rapid
3i Economic
activity, energy use, and greenhouse gas emissions move together
3j Decarbonization
of energy reversed at the beginning of the 21st century
3k The
top six carbon dioxide emitters in 2005
3l High-income
economies are by far the greatest emitters of carbon dioxide
3m Carbon
dioxide emissions embedded in international trade
3n Impact
of Policy Scenarios: carbon dioxide concentration, temperature increase, emissions, and energy demand
3o Reductions
in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by region in the 550 and 450 parts per million Policy Scenarios
relative to the Trend Scenario
3p Energy
efficiency has been improving
3q Electricity
generated from renewables is projected to more than double by 2030
3r Top 10
users of wind to generate electricity
3s Cost
and savings under the Policy Scenarios
3.1a What
is rural? Urban?
3.2a Nearly
40 percent of land globally is devoted to agriculture
3.2b Developing
regions lag in agricultural machinery, which reduces their agricultural productivity
3.3a Cereal
yield in low-income economies was less than 40 percent of the yield in high-income countries
3.3b Sub-Saharan
Africa had the lowest yield, while East Asia and Pacific is closing the gap with high-income economies
3.5a Agriculture
is still the largest user of water, accounting for some 70 percent of global withdrawals
3.5b The
share of withdrawals for agriculture approaches 90 percent in some developing regions
3.6a Emissions
of organic water pollutants declined in most economies from 1990 to 2005, even in some of the top
emitters
3.7a A
person in a high-income economy uses an average of more than 11 times as much energy as a person in a
low-income economy
3.8a High-income
economies depend on imported energy
3.8b . .
. mostly from middle-income economies in the Middle East and North Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean
3.9a The
10 largest contributors to methane emissions account for about 62 percent of emissions
3.9b The
10 largest contributors to nitrous oxide emissions account for about 56 percent of emissions
3.10a Sources
of electricity generation have shifted since 1999
3.10b . .
. with developing economies relying more on coal
3.11a Developing
economies had the largest increase in urban population between 1990 and 2007
3.11b Latin
America and the Caribbean had the same share of urban population as high-income economies in 2007
3.12a Selected
housing indicators for smaller economies
3.13a Particulate
matter concentration has fallen in all income groups, and the higher the income,
the lower the concentration
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4.
ECONOMY
Global output grew 3.8 percent in 2007, receding slightly from 4 percent in 2006. The downturn
was greatest in high-income economies, where growth fell from 3 percent to 2.5 percent,
affected by the cooling of the housing market, a precursor to the 2008 financial crisis.
Low- and middle-income economies, which have grown faster on average, reached a peak of
8.1 percent annual growth in 2007. Their strong performance was led by the economies of
East Asia and Pacific and South Asia (figure 4a), dominated by China at 13 percent annual
growth and India at 9 percent. After a decade of sustained growth India’s gross national
income (GNI) per capita (using the World Bank Atlas method) now places it with China among
the lower middle-income economies. Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Mongolia, the Philippines,
and Vietnam in East Asia and Pacific all grew faster than 6 percent, as did all South Asian
economies except Afghanistan and Nepal (figure 4b).
Tables
4.1 Growth
of output--------1990-2000 and 2000-2007
4.2 Structure
of output--------1995-2007
4.3 Structure
of manufacturing--------1995-2007
4.4 Structure
of merchandise exports--------1995-2007
4.5 Structure
of merchandise imports--------1995-2007
4.6 Structure
of service exports--------1995-2007
4.7 Structure
of service imports--------1995-2007
4.8 Structure
of demand--------1995-2007
4.9 Growth
of consumption and investment--------1990-2000
and 2000-2007
4.10 Central
government finances--------1995-2007
4.11 Central
government expenses--------1995-2007
4.12 Central
government revenues--------1995-2007
4.13 Monetary
indicators
4.14 Exchange
rates and prices
4.15 Balance
of payments current account--------1995-2007
Text figures, tables, and boxes
4a Economic
growth slowed in 2007
4b Large
middle-income economies with economic growth above 10 percent
4c Asian
countries invested more
4d East
Asia and Pacific is the largest saver
4e High-income
economies still produce the largest share of manufactured goods . . .
4f . . .
And account for the largest share of manufactures exports
4g Twelve
developing economies had a cash deficit greater than 3 percent of GDP
4h Five
developing economies had a public debt to GDP ratio greater than 60 percent over 2005–07
4i Modest
inflationary pressure affected 74 countries
4j Real
interest rates declined in 66 countries
4k–4p Growth
in GDP and investment 2007–08, selected major developing economies
4q–4v Growth
in industrial production 2007–08, selected major
developing economies
4w–4bb Lending
and inflation rates 2007–08, selected major
developing economies
4cc–4hh Central
government debt 2007–08, selected major
developing economies
4.3a Manufacturing
continues to show strong growth in East Asia
through 2007
4.4a Developing
economies’ share of world merchandise exports
continues to expand
4.5a Top
10 developing economy exporters of merchandise goods
in 2007
4.6a Top
10 developing economy exporters of commercial services
in 2007
4.7a The
mix of commercial service imports by developing
economies is changing
4.9a GDP
per capita is still lagging in some regions
4.10a Fifteen
developing economies had a government expenditure
to GDP ratio of 30 percent or higher
4.11a Interest
payments are a large part of government expenses
for some developing economies
4.12a Rich
economies rely more on direct taxes
4.15a Top 15 economies
with the largest reserves in 2007
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5. STATES AND MARKETS
Governments are becoming increasingly important users of
ICT, particularly for e-government—using Internet technology
as a platform for exchanging information, providing services,
and transacting with citizens, businesses, and other arms
of government. That makes them major actors in fostering
ICT uptake and setting information technology standards.
E-government initiatives can make public administration more
efficient, improve delivery of public services, and increase
government accountability and transparency. They can also
reduce transaction costs and processing times and increase
government revenues. Some e-government projects have also
improved governance, so vital for development.
Tables
5.1 Private
sector in the economy
5.2 Business
environment: enterprise surveys
5.3 Business
environment: Doing Business indicators
5.4 Stock
markets
5.5 Financial
access, stability, and efficiency
5.6 Tax
policies
5.7 Military
expenditures and arms transfers
5.8 Public
policies and institutions
5.9 Transport
services
5.10 Power
and communications
5.11 The
information age
Text figures, tables, and boxes
5a Improving
governance and contributing to growth
5b Seventy
percent of mobile phone subscribers are in
developing economies, 2000–07
5d Internet
use in developing economies is growing, but still
lags behind use in developed economies
5c Competition
can spur growth in mobile phone service
5e Broadband
access in developed and developing economies
5f International
bandwidth has increased rapidly in Europe and
Central Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean
5g Prices
for mobile phone services have declined in many
countries
5h Internet
service prices have fallen in some Sub-Saharan
African countries, 2005–07
5i East
Asia & Pacific leads in share of information and
communication technology goods exports
5j India
leads developing economies in information and
communications technology service export shares, 2007
5k Developing
economies have only about 4 percent of the
world’s secure servers, 2008
5l Partnership on
Measuring ICT for Development
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6.
GLOBAL LINKS
Although high-income economies remain the principal source and destination of international
trade and investment, globalization has allowed more developing countries to participate in
the growth of the global economy. They now account for almost 30 percent of world trade,
and their share has been increasing. Developing economies attracted 20 times more foreign
direct investment in nominal terms in 2007 than in 1990 and raised 40 times more net portfolio
equity. The 12 largest developing economies, which produce 70 percent of developing
country output, accounted for 67 percent of developing country exports in 2007. They also
received 69 percent of the net private financial inflows to developing economies.
The financial crisis that originated in high-income economies has spread rapidly to developing
economies through the same channels that connect them to the global economy: trade,
investment, aid, and the movement of people. Although developing economies have previously
encountered financial and economic crises, the current one is larger and may last longer. And
because the world is more integrated, the crisis will affect more economies and more people.
Tables
6.1 Integration
with the global economy
6.2 Growth
of merchandise trade
6.3 Direction
and growth of merchandise trade
6.4 High-income
economy trade with low- and middle-income
economies
6.5 Direction
of trade of developing economies
6.6 Primary
commodity prices 1970
to 2008
6.7 Regional
trade blocs
6.8 Tariff
barriers
6.9 External
debt
6.10 Ratios
for external debt
6.11 Global
private financial flows
6.12 Net
official financial flows
6.13 Financial
flows from Development Assistance Committee members
6.14 Allocation
of bilateral aid from Development Assistance Committee members
6.15 Aid
dependency
6.16 Distribution
of net aid by Development Assistance Committee members
6.17 Movement
of people 1990-1995 and 2000-2005 / Remittances 1995
and 2007
6.18 Characteristics
of immigrants in selected OECD countries
6.19 Travel
and tourism
Text figures, tables, and boxes
6a The
importance of trade to developing economies has increased
6b High-income
economies and a few large middle-income
economies account for a majority of world exports
6c Most
developing economy exports were directed to
high-income economies in 2007
6d Merchandise
imports of Group of Seven industrial economies
have declined, reflecting slowing demand for imports
6e Primary
commodity prices have been volatile over the past year
6f For
some economies food imports were equivalent to more
than 7 percent of household consumption, 2005–07 average
6g Large
middle-income economies received increasing amount
of portfolio equity flows in recent years
6h Other
developing economies borrowed increasing amounts
from private creditors
6i Much
global FDI is directed to high-income economies and
a few large middle-income economies . . .
6j . . .
But as a share of GDP, FDI net inflows are a large source
of private financing for low-income economies
6k FDI
net inflows to Indonesia and Malaysia declined
immediately after the East Asian financial crisis hit
6l FDI
net inflows to the Republic of Korea and Thailand
remained resilient for several years after the plunge in GDP
6m Net
portfolio equity flows to large middle-income economies
increased considerably
6n Stock
market capitalizations declined after the financial crisis
6o Spreads
on emerging market sovereign and corporate bonds
have widened, increasing the cost of borrowing
6p Private
lending to Europe and Central Asia increased
ninefold between 2003 and 2007
6q For
middle-income economies nearly 80 percent of long-term
debt was from private creditors while for low-income
economies 90 percent was from official creditors
6r Net
nonconcessional lending to middle-income economies
from international financial institutions, declining since
2002, recently increased
6s Aid is
equivalent to 5 percent of the GNI of low-income
economies
6t Aid
for long-term development has remained about the
same as in the 1970s
6u Aid
flows declined after the Nordic banking crisis in 1991
6v Two
U.S. financial crises in the late 20th century—aid down,
then up
6w Migration
to high-income economies has increased
6x More
remittance flows are now going to developing economies
6y–6dd Merchandise
trade 2006–08, selected major developing
economies
6ee–6jj Equity
price indices 2007–09, selected major developing
economies
6kk–6pp Bond
spreads 2007–09, selected major developing economies
6qq–6vv Financing
through international capital markets 2007–09,
selected major developing economies 326
6.1a Estimating
the global emigrant stock
6.3a In
2007 around 70 percent of exports from low- and middleincome
economies and from high-income economies were
directed to high-income economies
6.4a High-income
economies’ tariffs on imports from low- and
middle-income economies fell between 1997 and 2007 but
remain high for some products
6.5a Trading
partners vary by region
6.6a Commodity
prices increased between 2000 and the last
quarter of 2008—the longest boom since 1960
6.7a The
number of trade agreements has increased rapidly since
1990, especially bilateral agreements
6.9a The
levels and the composition of external debt vary by regions
6.10a The
burden of external debt service declined for most regions
over 1995–2007
6.11a In
2007 middle-income economies received nearly 20 times more
private capital flows than low-income economies did
6.12a Net
nonconcessional lending from international financial
institutions has declined in recent years as countries have
paid off previous loans
6.15a Official
development assistance from non-DAC donors, 2003–07
6.16a Most
donors increased their proportions of untied aid
between 2000 and 2007
6.19a High-income
economies remain the main destination for
international travelers, but the share of tourists visiting
developing economies is rising
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