From United Nations University

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39. The future of TNCs (1): the background setting
40. The future of TNCs (2): international issues

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39. The future of TNCs (1): the background setting

39.1 The present situation in historical perspective
    a) the "no-contest" phase 1945-c1960

    b) the confrontation phase c1960-c1975

    c) the conciliatory phase c1975-c1985

    d) the cooperative ('sink or swim together') phases;
       c1985 to date

39.2 The restructuring of the international economy and TNCs
    a) the slowing down of economic growth

    b) the advent of new technologies

    c) the growth of the newly industrialising economies
      i) no inward/no outward FDI (e.g. Chad)
     ii) increasing inward investment/no outward investment
         (e.g. Indonesia, Colombia)
    iii) increasing inward investment/but beginnings of
         outward investment (e.g. Korea, Singapore, Brazil)
     iv) outward investment growing faster than inward
         investment (e.g. UK, Sweden, Japan)
      v) inward investment growing faster than outward
         investment (US, Japan)
     vi) fluctuations in inward/outward direct investment
         positions e.g. mature economies such as UK, Germany,
         France, etc.
    vii) the concept of 'Triad' Power

39.3 Predicting the future pattern of TNC involvement
    a) growth in cross hauling of international production
       (i.e. more simmetry in outward and inward investment flows)

    b) the emergence of TNC galaxies, or systems, based on the
       coordination of core technologies and complementary assets to
       produce a range of products most suited to the TNCs
       capabilities

    c) the increasing importance of strategic alliances

    d) the impact of advances in information technology and
       transborder data flows on TNC activities and government
       negotiating capacities

39.4 Alternative scenarios of the future of the TNCs
    a) focusing on TNCs
      i) the domination of world business by 200-300 TNCs
     ii) the retreat of TNCs
    iii) the adaptation of TNCs

    b) focusing on nation states
      i) contribution towards economic autarky and national self
         reliance
     ii) movement towards economic autarky and national self 
         reliance
    iii) development of collective self reliance

39.5 The future of non-equity involvement by TNCs


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40. The future of TNCs (2): international issues

40.1 The New International Economic Order
    a) the impulses
      i) the role of the industrialized countries in shaping
         their North/South economic relations
     ii) the terms of trade
    iii) dependence of developing countries on economic decision
         taken in developed countries

    b) the ambitions
      i) disperse industrial production
     ii) improve terms of trade
    iii) encourage self reliance of developing countries

    c) given a), is it possible b) within the framework of
         - global free market system
         - free market systems in national economies, and
         - social stratified societies in general ?

40.2 The role of TNCs in the International Economic Order
    a) the international allocation of economic activity: by whom
       and by what means
      i) comparative advantage: the market
     ii) economic nationalism: government policy
    iii) TNCs

    b) TNCs and collective self reliance
      i) country specific factors-market size and government policy
     ii) sector/industry specific factors

40.3 Future attitudes towards TNCs
    a) the OECD countries

    b) the developing countries (Group 1 e.g. Latin America, India)

    c) the developing countries (Group 2 e.g. most of South East Asia)

    d) the developing countries (Group 3 e.g. most of Middle East)

    e) The East European countries and China

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41. Conclusions - A review of the course

41.1 The diverse forms of TNC activity and the changing patterns
     in this activity

41.2 Patterns in the evolution of TNC activity

    a) import substituting or resource based TNC activity

    b) diversified and rationalized TNC activity

    c) the growth of cross hauling of TNC activity

    d) the emergence of new forms of TNC involvement and
       strategic alliances

    e) the growth of service TNCs

41.3 A general framework for explaining international production

41.4 The main impact of TNC involvement on home and host countries

41.5 The latitude of TNCs to react to government policies

41.6 The effectiveness of alternative national and multilateral
     regulations and policies

41.7 The nature of TNCs in the future

    a) a two-tiered structure (ECA/UNCTC 1987)

    b) the concept of TNC galaxies and TNCs as controllers and
       organizers of networks of cross-border value adding and
       transactional activities

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Dicken(1986) UNCTC(1978m, 1983 and 1988)
Dunning(1988a and 1988b) Michalet(1983) OECD(1984)
UNCTC(1982c) Ergas in Jacquemin ed.(1983) Porter(1986)
Contractor and Lorange(1987)
Ohmae(1985)                    See Bibliography
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RRojas Research Unit/1996