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UNCTAD - Trade and Development Reports (TADR)
Trade and Development Report 2009
A gloomy global outlook

Even before the financial turmoil turned into a full-blown crisis in September 2008, growth of gross domestic product (GDP) had ground to a halt in most developed countries. Subsequently the slowdown turned into a fully-fledged recession, and in 2009 global GDP is expected to fall by more than 2.5 per cent. The crisis is unprecedented in depth and breadth, with virtually no economy left unscathed. Even economies that are expected to grow this year, such as those of China and India, are slowing down significantly compared to previous years.
Starting in the United States subprime mortgage market, the financial crisis spread quickly, infecting the entire United States financial system and, almost simultaneously, the financial markets of other developed countries. No market was spared, from the stock markets and real estate markets of a large number of developed and emerging-market economies, to currency markets and primary commodity markets. The credit crunch following the collapse or near collapse of major financial institutions affected activity in the real economy, which accelerated the fall in private demand, causing the greatest recession since the Great Depression. The crisis has affected most strongly companies, incomes and employment in the financial sector itself, but also in the construction, capital goods and durable consumer goods industries where demand depends largely on credit. In the first quarter of 2009 gross fixed capital formation and manufacturing output in most of the world’s major economies fell at double digit rates. Meanwhile problems with solvency in the non-financial sector in many countries fed back into the financial system.


Contents:
Explanatory notes, Abbreviations & OVERVIEW [PDF, 32pp., 325KB]
Chapter I [PDF, 54pp., 855KB]
The impact of the global crisis and the short-term policy response
A.

Recent trends in the world economy

B. The unfolding of the current global crisis
C. The ramifications of the spreading crisis
Notes
References

Annex to chapter I

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Chapter II [PDF, 34pp., 645KB]
The Financialization of commodity markets
A. Introduction
B. The growing interdependence of financial and commodity markets
C. Problems with the financialization of commodity futures trading
D. The impact of financialization on commodity price developments
  1. Commodity prices, equity indexes and exchange rates
  2. Position taking and price developments
  3. Statistical properties of price developments
  4. Conclusions
E. The implications of increased financial investor activities for commercial users of commodity futures exchanges
F. Policy implications
  1. Regulation of commodity futures exchanges
  2. International policy measures
G. Conclusions and outlook
Notes
References
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Chapter III [PDF, 30pp., 470KB]
Learning from the crisis: Policies for safer and sounder financiaL systems
A. Introduction
B. The current crisis: some new facets, but mostly the same old story
C. How to deal with the fragility of the modern financial system
  1. Defining and measuring efficiency
  2. Avoiding gambling
 

3. Avoiding regulatory arbitrage

  4. Can securitization reduce risk?
  5. Strengthening regulation
  6. Implementing macro-prudential regulation
  7. Enhancing international coordination
  8. Financial regulation and incentives
D. Lessons for developing countries
  1. Increasing resilience to external shocks
  2. More financial development requires more and better regulation
  3. There is no one-size-fits-all financial system
E. Conclusions
Notes
References

Annex to chapter III

Chapter IV [PDF, 22pp., 295KB]
Reform of the international monetary and financial system
A. Introduction
B. The problem of the predominance of financial markets over fundamentals
C. Stemming destabilizing capital flows
  1. Taxing international financial transactions
  2. Capital-account management
  3. Dealing with debt and payments crises
D. International reserves and the role of SdRs
  1. Disadvantages of the current system
  2. The cost of holding foreign exchange reserves
  3. Reform of the reserve system and the role of SDRs
E. A global monetary system with stable real exchange rates and symmetric intervention obligations
F. The role of regional cooperation and international policy coordination
Notes
References
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Chapter V [PDF, 44pp., 415KB]
Climate Change mitigation and development
A. Introduction
B. Greenhouse gas emissions and the global impact of climate change
C. Policies for climate change mitigation: some general considerations
  1. Correcting market failure
  2. Carbon taxes, emissions trading and regulation
  3. Technology and innovation policies
D. structural change for curbing global warming
E. Climate change mitigation and the development imperative
  1. Emissions reduction, growth and development
  2. Options for climate change mitigation in developing countries
  3. Development opportunities arising from climate change mitigation
  4. Integrating climate change mitigation policies with development strategies
F. Towards an effective international climate policy framework
  1. The broad agenda
  2. Involvement of developing countries
  3. External financing, trade and technology transfer
G. Conclusions and policy recommendations
Notes
References
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Selected UNCTAD Publications [PDF, 8pp., 135KB]
Questionnaire [PDF, 2pp., 13KB]
Full Report (one file) [PDF, 218pp., 2870KB]


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Back to Trade and Development Reports (various years)

UNCTAD Handbook of Statistics: 2002 - 2003 - 2004 - 2005 - 2006/07

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