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International Monetary Fund: World Economic and Financial Surveys
World Economic Outlook - April 2009
Crisis and Recovery
Ordering Information
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.
 
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Contents

  Assumptions and Conventions
Preface
  Joint Foreword to World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report
Even with determined steps to return the financial sector to health and continued use of macroeconomic policy levers to support aggregate demand, global activity is projected to contract by 1.3 percent in 2009. This represents the deepest post–World War II recession by far. Moreover, the downturn is truly global: output per capita is projected to decline in countries representing three-quarters of the global economy. Growth is projected to reemerge in 2010, but at 1.9 percent it would be sluggish relative to past recoveries.
These projections are based on an assessment that financial market stabilization will take longer than previously envisaged, even with strong efforts by policymakers. Thus, financial conditions in the mature markets are projected to improve only slowly, as insolvency concerns are diminished by greater clarity over losses on bad assets and injections of public capital, and counterparty risks and market volatility are reduced. The April 2009 issue of the Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) estimates that, subject to a number of assumptions, credit writedowns on U.S.-originated assets by all holders since the start of the crisis will total $2.7 trillion, compared with an estimate of $2.2 trillion in the January 2009 GFSR Update.
Including assets originated in other mature market economies, total write-downs could reach $4 trillion over the next two years, approximately two-thirds of which may be taken by banks. Overall credit to the private sector in the advanced economies is thus expected to decline during both 2009 and 2010. Because of the acute degree of stress in mature markets and its concentration in the banking system, capital flows to emerging economies will remain very low.
  Executive Summary
Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies
Full Text  |  Boxes  |   Figures  |  Video
 
  How Did Things Get So Bad, So Fast?
Short-Term Prospects Are Precarious
Gauging Risks for Deflation
Sovereigns under Stress
Exploring the Downside
Medium-Term Prospects beyond the Crisis
Policies to End the Crisis while Paving the Way to Sustained Recovery
Appendix 1.1. Commodity Market Developments and Prospects
Appendix 1.2. Fan Chart for Global Growth
Appendix 1.3. Assumptions behind the Downside Scenario
References
 
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives
Full Text  |   Boxes  |   Figures
   
  The United States Is Grappling with the Financial Core of the Crisis
Asia Is Struggling to Rebalance Growth from External to Domestic Sources
Europe Is Searching for a Coherent Policy Response
The CIS Economies Are Suffering a Triple Blow
Other Advanced Economies Are Dealing with Adverse Terms-of-Trade Shocks
Latin America and the Caribbean Face Growing Pressures
Middle Eastern Economies Are Buffering Global Shocks
Hard-Won Economic Gains in Africa Are Being Threatened
References

Supplemental Tables: Key Macroeconomic Projects, by Region (online only)
 
Chapter 3. From Recession to Recovery: How Soon and How Strong?
Full Text  |   Summary  |   Video  |   Boxes  |   Figures
   
  Business Cycles in the Advanced Economies
Does the Cause of a Downturn Affect the Shape of the Cycle?
Can Policies Play a Useful Countercyclical Role?
Lessons for the Current Recession and Prospects for Recovery
Appendix 3.1. Data Sources and Methodologies
References
 
Chapter 4. How Linkages Fuel the Fire: The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging Economies
Full Text  |   Summary  |   Video  |   Boxes  |   Figures
   
  Measuring Financial Stress
Links between Advanced and Emerging Economies
The Transmission of Financial Stress: An Overall Analysis
Lessons from Previous Advanced Economy Banking Crises
Implications for the Current Crisis
Which Policies Can Help?
Appendix 4.1. A Financial Stress Index for Emerging Economies
Appendix 4.2. Financial Stress in Emerging Economies: Econometric Analysis
References
 
  Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2009
 
Statistical Appendix
Assumptions
What's New
Data and Conventions
Classification of Countries
General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification
 
List of Tables Part A
  Output (Tables A1–A4)
  Inflation (Tables A5–A7)
  Financial Policies (Table A8)
  Foreign Trade (Table A9)
  Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12)
  Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A13–
    A15)
  Flow of Funds (Table A16)
  Medium–Term Baseline Scenario (Table A17)
 
 
  World Economic Outlook Selected Topics
 
Boxes
Chart
Chart
Chart		 Data
Data
Data		 1.1 Global Business Cycles
Chart
Chart		 Data
Data		 1.2 How Vulnerable Are Nonfinancial Firms?
Chart Data 1.3 Assessing Deflation Risks in the G3 Economies
Chart
Chart
Chart		 Data
Data
Data		 1.4 Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis
Chart
Chart		 Data
Data		 1.5 Will Commodity Prices Rise Again when the Global Economy Recovers?
Chart
Chart		 Data
Data		 2.1 The Case of Vanishing Household Wealth
Chart
Chart		 Data
Data		 2.2 Vulnerabilities in Emerging Economies
Chart
Chart
Chart		 Data
Data
Data		 3.1 How Similar Is the Current Crisis to the Great Depression?
Chart
Chart		 Data
Data		 3.2 Is Credit a Vital Ingredient for Recovery? Evidence from Industry-Level Data
    4.1 Impact of Foreign Bank Ownership during Home-Grown Crises
Tables
1.1 Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections
1.2 Comparison of Commodity Price Volatility
1.3 Global Oil Demand and Production by Region
1.4 Underlying World Merchandise Trade Flows
1.5 Factors Explaining the Additional Decline in Output Growth for 2009–10
2.1 Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Unemployment
2.2 Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
2.3 Advanced Economies: Current Account Positions
2.4 Selected Emerging European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
2.5 Selected Commonwealth of Independent States Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
2.6 Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
2.7 Selected Middle Eastern Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
2.8 Selected African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, and Current Account Balance
3.1 Business Cycles in the Industrial Countries: Summary Statistics
3.2 Financial Crises and Associated Recessions
3.3 Impact of Policies on the Probability of Exiting a Recession
3.4 Impact of Policies on the Strength of Recoveries
3.5 Results from Categorizing Recessions
3.6 Financial Crises and Deregulation in the Mortgage Market
3.7 Impact of Policies on the Strength of Recoveries Using an Alternative Measure of Fiscal Policy
4.1 Episodes of Widespread Financial Stress in Advanced Economies
4.2 The Role of Linkages as Determinants of Comovement
4.3 Emerging Economy Stress: Country-Specific Effects
4.4 Emerging Economy Stress: Determinants of Common Time Trend
4.5 Emerging Economy Stress: Country-Specific Effects and Interactions with Stress in Advanced Economies
Figures
Chart Data 1.1 Global Indicators
Chart Data 1.2 Developments in Mature Credit Markets
Chart Data 1.3 Emerging Market Conditions
Chart Data 1.4 Current and Forward-Looking Indicators
Chart Data 1.5 Global Inflation
Chart Data 1.6 External Developments
Chart Data 1.7 Measures of Monetary Policy and Liquidity in Selected Advanced Economies
Chart Data 1.8 Global Outlook
Chart Data 1.9 Potential Growth and the Output Gap
Chart Data 1.10 Risks to World GDP Growth
Chart Data 1.11 Housing Developments
Chart Data 1.12 Downside Scenario
Chart Data 1.13 Net Capital Flows to Emerging and Developing Economies
Chart Data 1.14 General Government Fiscal Balances and Public Debt
Chart Data 1.15 Global Saving, Investment, and Current Accounts
Chart Data 1.16 Alternative Medium-Term Scenarios
Chart Data 1.17 Commodity and Petroleum Prices
Chart Data 1.18 World Oil Market Developments
Chart Data 1.19 Developments in Metal and Energy Markets
Chart Data 1.20 Recent Developments in Markets for Major Food Crops
Chart Data 1.21 Dispersion of Forecasts and Selected Risk Factors
Chart Data 1.22 Balance of Risks Associated with Selected Risk Factors
Chart Data 2.1 United States: The Center of the Crisis
Chart Data 2.2 Advanced and Emerging Asia: Suffering from the Collapse of Global Trade
Chart Data 2.3 Europe: Developing a Common Response
Chart Data 2.4 Europe: Subdued Medium-Run Growth Prospects
Chart Data 2.5 Commonwealth of Independent States: Struggling with Capital Outflows
Chart Data 2.6 Canada, Australia, and New Zealand: Dealing with Terms-of-Trade Shocks
Chart Data 2.7 Latin America: Pressures Are Growing
Chart Data 2.8 Middle East: Coping with Lower Oil Prices
Chart Data 2.9 Africa: Hard-Won Gains at Risk
Chart   3.1 Business Cycle Peaks and Troughs
Chart Data 3.2 Business Cycles Have Moderated over Time
Chart Data 3.3 Temporal Evolution of Recessions by Shock
Chart Data 3.4 Average Statistics for Recessions and Recoveries
Chart Data 3.5 Expansions in the Run-Up to Recessions Associated with Financial Crises and Other Shocks
Chart Data 3.6 House Price-to-Rental Ratios for Recessions Associated with Financial Crises and Other Shocks
Chart Data 3.7 Household Saving Rate and Net Lending before and after Business Cycle Peaks
Chart Data 3.8 Recessions and Recoveries Associated with Financial Crises and Other Shocks
Chart Data 3.9 Highly Synchronized Recessions
Chart Data 3.10 Are Highly Synchronized Recessions Different?
Chart Data 3.11 Average Policy Response during a Recession
Chart Data 3.12 Impact of Policies during Financial Crisis Episodes
Chart Data 3.13 Effect of Policy Variables on the Strength of Recovery
Chart Data 3.14 Relationship between the Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Strength of Recovery and the Debt-to-GDP Ratio
Chart Data 3.15 Economic Indicators around Peaks of Current and Previous Recessions
Chart Data 4.1 Indicators of Financial Stress in Emerging Economies
Chart Data 4.2 Capital Flows to Emerging Economies
Chart Data 4.3 Sudden Stops and Activity
Chart Data 4.4 Financial Stress in Advanced Economies
Chart Data 4.5 Financial Stress Indices in Emerging Economies
Chart Data 4.6 Financial Stress in Emerging and Advanced Economies
Chart   4.7 The Transmission of Stress: Schematic Depiction of Effects
Chart Data 4.8 Financial Integration of Emerging and Developing Economies
Chart Data 4.9 Financial Exposures of Emerging to Advanced Economies
Chart Data 4.10 Financial Linkages between Advanced and Emerging Economies
Chart Data 4.11 Vulnerability Indicators by Region, 1990–2007
Chart Data 4.12 Comovement in Financial Stress between Emerging and Advanced Economies
Chart Data 4.13 Explaining Financial Stress in Emerging Economies
Chart Data 4.14 Impact of the Latin American Debt Crisis on Banking Liabilities
Chart Data 4.15 Impact of the Japanese Banking Crisis on Bank Lending
Chart Data 4.16 Exposure to Bank Lending Liabilities and Twin Deficits in Emerging Economies, 2002–06
Chart Data 4.17 Emerging Economy Stress: Common Time Component and Stress in Advanced Economies

Global Financial Crisis 2008
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