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Fall of Russian Government is Bad News for Milosevic
- Date: Thu, 13 May 1999 21:11:37 -0400 (EDT)
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Stratfor 0010 GMT, 990513
SHIFT IN MOSCOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASES SERBIAN VULNERABILITY
Primakov’s fall is bad news for Milosevic. As we have argued from
the beginning, Milosevic’s decision not to capitulate to NATO
bombing was, to a great extent, predicated on Russian support.
Milosevic’s sense was that with Primakov and Ivanov in charge
Serbia could not be completely isolated by the West. Indeed, his
sense was that NATO would have to limit or end the bombing in
order not to drive the Russians too far into opposition. The
Russians have been signaling for days that in their view Milosevic,
and not the West, was the block to a peace settlement. Suddenly,
Milosevic must face the fact that the hints may be turning into a
policy.
It is possible that this has been the rationale for NATO’s
continuation of the war. By most reads, the bombing campaign has
not been successful. Stubborn continuation of the bombing
appeared to us and to others as irrational. However, assuming that
NATO and Washington had intelligence that Yeltsin was planning
to oust Primakov, an interesting assumption given that Strobe
Talbott was in Moscow as Yeltsin’s strike took place, Washington
might have been waiting for just this moment. There is now a
proposal on the plate and Milosevic must decide what he is going
to do, without the warmest support Russia has to offer.
It has to be remembered that NATO cannot regard this as a
permanent shift. In fact it may be a very small window of
opportunity. Primakov’s ouster will raise the furies in the Duma,
and a very serious move is underway to impeach Yeltsin. Should
Yeltsin have to change course again, Serbia might shortly find
more friendly faces in Moscow. Therefore, NATO needs to end the
war now. The primary hope is that Milosevic will feel the isolation
and accept some variation of the Chernomyrdin proposal. The
alternative is a massive increase in NATO’s air campaign. The
decision by Greece to close its airspace to NATO aircraft enroute
from Turkish bases indicates that NATO is, in fact, marshalling all
of its available forces for a stunning blow at Serbia. It is doing this
very publicly, in the hope that Milosevic sees the threat, takes it
seriously, and capitulates. NATO remains split on intensifying the
war. However, if Milosevic refuses to reach an agreement on
NATO’s terms, trying to aim a knockout blow at Serbia from the
air seems the logical next step. It may include limited ground
attacks on Kosovo from Albania.
For the first time in the war, NATO may have the upper hand.
What Germany promised on Russian loans, what the IMF will do,
what Washington is prepared to do to solve Russia’s financial
problems, all remain to be seen. But this much is certain: Milosevic
is much more uneasy today than he was yesterday. The loss of his
great power backing and the threat of intense bombardment may
together force him to modify his position. Milosevic must make
fateful decisions in the next day or two.
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